Predicting the Formula 1 Drivers’ or Constructors’ Championship winner for the 2026 season is not as straightforward as in previous years, courtesy of a long list of regulation changes, including a full remake of the cars. They’re now more compact, lighter, snappier, and will use the all-new overtake mode rather than the familiar DRS.
Needless to say, the early sentiment – much like when the ground-effect era rules first came into play – is that Mercedes are ahead of the pack in terms of expectations. Market sentiment backs that up too, with many major betting providers, pundits, and even general audiences suggesting that if they really had to put money on the line, they’d probably pick George Russell.
But we should not forget what we saw in 2025. Oscar Piastri at one point was flying high and looked like the most obvious winner of the Drivers’ Championship. Yet, oh how the tables turned, with Lando Norris and even Max Verstappen surging back and three drivers heading into Abu Dhabi still with a chance of winning.
That’s the kind of sport we have on our hands here, folks!
Formula 1 2026 predictions
The betting companies
The verdict is pretty unanimous among online sports betting companies around the globe. George Russell and Mercedes are clear favourites to win the two championships in the Formula 1 2026 season.
In the US, for example, on FanDuel, George Russell currently leads the betting markets at +200, ahead of Max Verstappen at +330 and Charles Leclerc at +500. As for the Constructors’ Championship, Mercedes are listed at +120, followed by McLaren at +300 and Ferrari close behind at +330.
Over at DraftKings, Mercedes are again predicted to be the winning car this season at +135, but they have Ferrari ahead of McLaren, with Ferrari at +250 and McLaren at +275.
As expected, Red Bull are not favourites when it comes to the constructors’ title, largely because of their perennial troubles with the second seat alongside Max Verstappen.
Over in the UK, the bookies are just as bullish about a Silver Arrows victory. George Russell is the clear favourite at 2/1 (+200), followed again by Max Verstappen at 10/3 (around +332). Then come the two Ferrari drivers.
(All odds correct at the time of writing – March 4)
The pundits
Just like the bookies, most F1 pundits are also favouring George Russell and Mercedes to take the two championships in the 2026 season.
Most notably, Martin Brundle from Sky Sports F1 said that George Russell is in the best position to fight for the title in the new era, even though he softened his stance slightly by later adding that there is “not a clear favourite” for the title based on what we’ve seen in pre-season testing. Still, with comments like, “George has got the best team around him,” and “I do think he’s ready for it,” it’s clear that Brundle is backing the Briton to take the crown.
AI chatbots
I also threw the question to some of the most popular AI chatbots to see what they think about the Formula 1 2026 winners:
ChatGPT
Drivers’ Champion – Max Verstappen
Max Verstappen remains the safest bet for 2026. He’s in his prime, relentless under pressure, and adaptable across regulation changes. If his team produces even a competitive car under the new engine rules, his consistency, tyre management, and racecraft should keep him ahead over a full championship season.
Constructors’ Champion – Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula One Team
Mercedes is my pick for 2026 constructors’ champion. Major power unit regulation resets historically reward strong engine manufacturers, and Mercedes dominated the last hybrid overhaul in 2014. With deep resources, technical expertise, and long-term planning, they’re well positioned to capitalize on the new electrical-focused engine formula.
Claude
Drivers’ Championship: My pick is George Russell. Mercedes looked strong in pre-season testing, and Russell is one of the most complete drivers on the grid — he just needed a car to match his talent. Leclerc and Verstappen will push him hard, but in a regulation reset year, I think Russell finally gets his moment.
Constructors’ Championship: Mercedes. History strongly favours them in major regulation changes — they dominated the last big reset in 2014 and won eight titles in a row. With a well-balanced car and two strong drivers in Russell and Antonelli, they’re best placed to adapt and pull ahead as the season develops.
The writer
If the tens and hundreds of hours I’ve spent playing the Formula One game on my Xbox and racing on the sim setup at my local game zone have taught me anything, it’s to never underestimate an athlete. Besides, what’s the fun in simply going along with the obvious and saying what everyone else is saying – that George Russell or Max Verstappen will win?
To step away from the crowd a little, I’m going with Lewis Hamilton.
Sure, I would love to see a new F1 champion as much as anyone else. But at 41 years old, and after being robbed of that eighth championship, I believe Lewis – who has already said on multiple occasions that he feels very confident with his DNA in the car this time around – has one more run in him.
I’m backing LH44 to go all the way and be the one doing the donuts in Abu Dhabi in December 2026.
As for the Constructors’ Championship, I firmly believe it will be a toss-up between Ferrari and Mercedes. From what I’ve seen so far, the race-start advantage Ferrari seem to have could play a decisive role in the early races, at least if Mercedes are not able to iron out their race-start troubles.
And an early advantage could give Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, both seasoned drivers, enough room to build momentum and take the Constructors’ title.
Key Formula 1 live streams around the world
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